Effective messaging and evidence-based demonstration of implicit economic opportunities in transitioning to leaner 1.5℃ pathways can go a long way in creating consensus for massive social mobilization and committed government actions towards deeper decarbonization. In this study we assess the direct and indirect economic impacts of India’s Nationally Determined Commitments (NDCs) and beyond at the subnational level using an integrated macro-econometric dynamic simulation model: E3-India. An array of distinct economic trajectories associated with energy decarbonization and energy efficiency targets at national level and state level were simulated using the model. Results reveal that selective investments in ambitious climate mitigation policies will lead to overall economic growth for Indian economy. However, distributional impacts across states, especially those already identified as climate hotspots, will be heterogenous. These regions will therefore need effective policy interventions to manage the transition and ensure resilience in the face of climate change.
Keywords Climate resilience, NDC, Energy transition, green growth, consensus building, India