The long‐term production of U.S. tight oil is forecast by using a composite model combining the Generalized Weng and Gompertz models. We show that U.S. tight oil production is likely to reach a peak within ten years, between 2019 and 2028, at a production rate between 7 and 13 million barrels per day (Mb/d), depending on the size of the ultimately recoverable resource (URR) estimate. Our most‐likely ‘medium‐case’ URR scenario suggests the peak year is probably around 2025, at a production rate of about 10 Mb/d. Comparing our results with those of the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) suggests that the EIA is over‐optimistic in its long‐term production forecast of U.S. tight oil.
Keywords tight oil; shale revolution; production forecast; ultimately recoverable resources