Volume 10: Proceedings of 12th International Conference on Applied Energy, Part 2, Thailand/Virtual, 2020

Model-driven forecasting for the number of private electric vehicles considering social propaganda and subsidy policy Hanjiang Dong, Jizhong Zhu, Shenglin Li, Ziyu Chen

Abstract

Private electric vehicle (“PEV”) is an environmentally friendly transportation for household, which should be further popularized in the future together with electric vehicle (“EV”). Aiming at the strategy on promoting PEV, the impact of social propaganda and subsidy policy is explored by applying Bass model to forecast the number of PEV, which is non-periodic and annual. Bass model is effective to deal with the network externalities by considering the maximum market potential, the innovation coefficient, the imitation coefficient, and the adjustment coefficient. Combining actual data of the number of EV from Annual Report of Guangzhou, China, we demonstrate that social propaganda and subsidy policy will respectively affect the increasement of PEV in the long and short term, which means proper strategy should be adopted by authority to popularize EV.

Keywords Private electric vehicles, forecasting, Bass model

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