Volume 4: Innovative Solutions for Energy Transitions: Part III

Scenario Analysis of Electric Vehicle and Its Impacts on Energy System of Road Transport Sector in Thailand Jakapong Pongthanaisawan*, Weerin Wangjiraniran

Abstract

Transport sector around the world is in a transition era by experiencing a disruption of electric vehicle (EV) technology. This transition brings both challenges and opportunities to energy system and energy pattern in transport sector, such as increasing of electricity demand and reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This study aims to analyse the potential future scenarios of the penetration of EV in Thailand’s road transport sector. In addition, the impacts of such technology to energy demand and supply and potential of GHG emission reduction in transport sector will also be assessed.
Policy commitment of the government plays a crucial role for EVs market in Thailand. Therefore, the future scenarios can be explored by two cases: Current Policy Scenario (CPS) represents the current actions of government support on EVs, whereas Proactive Policy Scenario (PPS) represents full package of government supports on both supply and demand sides. High penetration rate of EVs will impacts on Thailand energy system, especially road transport sector. This include total energy demand pattern, load profile of electricity demand and GHG emission. The results present that total number of EVs in PPS scenario will consume electricity more than that of CPS scenario around 1,650 ktoe (19,363 GWh), however, they can reduce 474 ktoe of total energy consumption and 10 MtCO2eq by 2040.

Keywords Electric vehicle, Disruptive technology, scenario analysis, Transport energy demand model, Energy efficiency in transport sector