Volume 20: Sustainable Energy Solutions for a Post-COVID Recovery towards a Better Future: Part III

Compositional Linear Model Clarifies Country-Level Energy Mix Drivers Shaofang Xue, Ying Fan

Abstract

The energy mixes, which describe energy consumption structure by fuel type, are complex compositional data that cannot directly apply the multivariate statistical methods. Consequently, we apply a special compositional linear regression model to study how the country-level energy mix is influenced. The main findings of 45 countries by income group over 1990-2019 are: 1) The dependence of energy use on energy resource for each fuel type is confirmed in upper-middle-income countries. 2) Non-fossil use is driven by hydroelectricity resources and economic level in high-come and upper-middle-income countries, and by oil resources in lower-middle-income and low-income countries; 3) The energy transition as economy grows presents two typical patterns: high-income and upper-middle-income countries shift to non-fossils and natural gas, while the lower-middle-income and low-income shift to coal and oil.

Keywords Energy mix, Compositional linear model, Energy resource endowment, Income group