Volume 67

A Brief Review of Models and Predictions for Achieving Carbon Neutrality in Civil Aviation Liang Sun, Shuangqing Xv, Hanhuan Yan, Gang Zhao, Li Xie1, Kai Li, Ming Liu, Minghua Zhou

Abstract

To achieve the 1.5 °C climate goal, global aviation must reach net-zero COâ‚‚ emissions around 2050. Yet, aviation is widely regarded as a “hard-to-abate” sector due to its strong reliance on high-energy-density liquid fuels. This paper briefly reviews and compares decarbonization models and pathways published by major organizations such as ICAO, IATA, ATAG and ICCT. Key findings include: (1) Sustainable aviation fuel is viewed across all major scenarios as the primary emissions reduction lever during 2030–2050. (2) Revolutionary technologies such as hydrogen/electric propulsion exhibit the highest level of uncertainty. (3) Operational improvements are unable to fully offset demand growth. (4) Sector-internal measures alone cannot achieve absolute zero emissions by 2050; external market-based measures or carbon dioxide removal will be necessary. The study further notes that current models are evolving toward integrated techno-economic-policy-climate assessments, AI-enhanced interpretable projections, and improved accounting of non-COâ‚‚ effects and socio-economic impacts.

Keywords civil aviation, decarbonization pathway, net-zero COâ‚‚ emissions, integrated model