Volume 59

A Fairness–Efficiency Matrix for Navigating Carbon Neutrality Transitions Weize Song, Zhiqing Zhang, Zheng Li

Abstract

The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) provide an essential exogenous hypothesis for the Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) to explore long-term energy transitions and low-carbon trajectories. Nevertheless, their global orientation often neglects national heterogeneities that are critical for effective policymaking. Here, this study proposes the fairness–efficiency challenges as a new research paradigm for redefining SSP narratives at the national level. The socioeconomic governance framework situates energy transition pathways along two normative dimensions: fairness, denoting the equitable distribution of costs and benefits across various regions, social groups, and generations; and efficiency, denoting the technological, institutional, and economic capacity to achieve carbon neutrality in a timely and cost-effective manner. It preserves the original SSP logic while contextualizing it within unique regional governance, developmental, and socioeconomic system structures. The resulting scenario narratives not only supports heterogenetic vision, but also provides carbon neutrality modelers with a transparent, replicable framework for scenario parameterization, uncertainty and risk management, and policy evaluation, strengthening policy relevance of national low carbon energy system projections.

Keywords Fairness–Efficiency Matrix, Archetypal Quadrants, Alternative Pathway Typology, Carbon Neutrality, Socioeconomic future, Transition Governance