Volume 66

A Semi-Analytical Productivity Prediction Model for Hydraulically Fractured Horizontal Wells in Fractured Reservoirs Hongda Gao, Linsong Cheng , Pin Jia *, Haozhe Dong ,Yucheng Wu

Abstract

This study develops a semi-analytical model for multiphase productivity prediction in fractured horizontal wells, integrating equivalent fracture elements with a dynamic drainage radius. By incorporating fracture orientation, aperture, density, and stress sensitivity, the model accurately characterizes flow across hydraulic fractures, natural fractures, and the matrix. Built on material balance principles, the three-phase coupled flow model explicitly accounts for complex fracture geometries and stress-sensitive permeability. Validation against field data demonstrates high predictive accuracy and practical engineering utility. Sensitivity analysis reveals that hydraulic fracture half-length, natural fracture orientation, and stress sensitivity dominate ultimate recovery, while aperture and density primarily influence early-phase production. This work provides an efficient theoretical framework for production optimization in complex fractured reservoirs.

Keywords Fractured reservoir; Semi-analytical model; Equivalent permeability; Dynamic drainage radius; Productivity prediction;