Abstract
Currently, geopolitical conflicts are escalating, with key energy channels such as the Strait of Hormuz facing disruptions in navigation and sharp fluctuations in energy prices. Geopolitical risks have become a core variable threatening the stability, smoothness, and efficiency of global energy supply. Traditional energy scenario analysis methods suffer from lagging responses and cannot timely provide support for energy system risk response. This paper focuses on the potential risks to energy supply under geopolitical risks, introduces artificial intelligence technology to construct an analytical model in energy scenario analysis to achieve rapid construction and efficient analysis of scenarios, and centers on designing an energy scenario framework from the three dimensions of “supply, efficiency, smoothness”. Integrating geopolitical conflict-related information, energy supply data, international oil price data, shipping data, and market transaction data, an integrated scenario analysis model is built relying on artificial intelligence technology, replacing the cumbersome traditional manual modeling and calculation processes to quickly construct three core scenarios: the supply guarantee scenario, the efficiency guarantee scenario, and the smoothness guarantee scenario. Through the model, the stability, economic efficiency, and circulation efficiency of energy supply under different scenarios are quickly quantified and deduced, and the applicable scenarios and implementation priorities of each scenario are clarified. The research results show that introducing artificial intelligence technology into energy scenario analysis can effectively simplify the modeling process, improve the speed and accuracy of scenario analysis, and quickly respond to the dynamic changes of geopolitical risks; the three-dimensional scenario of ” supply, efficiency, smoothness” can achieve the multi-objective balance of the energy system under geopolitical risks. The research conclusions can provide accurate decision-making reference and technical support for energy enterprises to formulate risk response strategies and for governments to improve energy security policies.