With the decline of subsidy policy and implement of “double credit policy” in new energy vehicle industry, business model innovation will play an increasingly prominent role in the new energy vehicle industry. By analyzing the characteristics of policies, technologies and business models of China’s new energy vehicle market, and based on sociotechnical transformation theory, this paper constructs a business model evolution model under sociotechnical transformation. Then base on this model, there exist seven business model evolution paths from the perspective of sociotechnical transformation. For China’s new energy vehicle industry, five typical business model paths are studied in depth from four factors: landscape, regime, technology niche and business model. The research shows that the business model evolution model under sociotechnical transformation can clearly interpret the business model evolution path of China’s new energy vehicle industry. With the development of China’s new energy vehicle industry in the future, the impact of policy regime on business model innovation is weakening, and technology niche plays an increasingly important role in business model innovation.