Volume 48

Cost Analysis and Future Prospects of BECCS Deployment in China Shoujie Huang, Hao Yu, Haotong Cai, Xiaojie Yu, Changyou Xia, Dongxu Ji

Abstract

Bioenergy could offer zero-emission high-temperature heat and fuels that work in existing engines and industrial infrastructure, and bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) stands out as a crucial negative emission technology (NET) essential for achieving carbon neutrality. This study examines the carbon removal cost of biomass-fuelled power plants with CCS (BFP-CCS) and bioethanol plants with CCS (BP-CCS), revealing current carbon removal cost ranges of $88 to $288 /t CO2 and $20 to $175 /t CO2, respectively. The paper makes predictions about the scale of BECCS in two scenarios, radical and conservative. Utilizing the learning curve approach, the study predicts cost reductions from 64.6% to 92.1% for BFP-CCS and BP-CCS by 2100. Furthermore, the potential scale of BECCS applications is estimated to reach 2 billion tonnes per year, highlighting its cost-effectiveness, particularly in comparison to the projected costs of direct air carbon capture. However, the lack of targeted policy support for carbon capture and storage technologies in China, in contrast to other clean energy technologies, represents a significant hurdle. Enacting comparable policy incentives can foster the commercialization and large-scale deployment of BECCS, thereby accelerating the carbon neutrality progress of China 2060.

Keywords BECCS, carbon neutrality, economic analysis, learning curve, cost prediction