Volume 36: Intelligent Energy Solutions for Resilient Urban Systems

Dynamic simulation of carbon peak pathways in Shandong province of China driven by energy system optimization Chang Shu, Feng Xu, Shengnan Li, Nan Xiang



As the world’s largest energy consumer and carbon emitter, China accounted for 26.5% of global energy consumption and 31% of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in 2021; Shandong province as a heavy industry intensive base in China, confronted with the most imminent task of energy conservation and emission reduction. With pursue on “carbon peak and neutrality”, Shandong province need to transfer the high-carbon energy system fundamentally to accomplish the high-quality development. To explore the timetable and roadmap of carbon peak in Shandong province, this research integrates the input-output modelling, system dynamics and multi-objective programming, and innovatively develops the carbon peak model. The model focuses on energy structure transformation and energy efficiency improvement, including incentives for electrification level increase, renewable power (such as wind and solar power) penetration enhancement, and low-carbon technology investment, combined with industrial restructure. A dynamic simulation measure is adopted to predict Shandong province’s economy-energy-carbon development from 2020 to 2035. The research can provide a useful reference for formulating operatable energy management and carbon peak schemes in industrially developed regions such as Shandong province.

Keywords Carbon peak, energy system optimization, energy management, input-output model, dynamic simulation

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