As China pledges to achieve carbon neutral by 2060, provincial mitigation routes and plans are carried out in succession. Severe aging in demographic structure will impact future carbon emission and influence the effectiveness of low carbon policies, with shifting consumption pattern induced by age structure changes, age-different respond in low-carbon policies, shrinking labor supply. Current researches on China’s new mitigation pledges did not consider the impact of demographic changes. This study used a multi-regional CGE model with detailed household agents and found it necessary to consider the effects of aging in simulation. In extreme scenarios, there are 20% decrease in emission and 17% drop in economic output comparing with traditional scenario without taking aging into account. The implementation speed of delayed retirement faces a trade-off between economic development and emission reduction costs.
Keywords Carbon emission, Demographic changes, Emission trading scheme, CGE modeling, Economic impacts