Iron and steel industry (ISI) is an important pollutant emission source in China. This research estimated the energy consumption, CO2, air pollutants and heavy metal emissions from ISI in different regions of China based on the different resource endowments and development strategies. AIM/Enduse model was applied to analyze the application ratio of 16 advanced technologies in 9 scenarios. Different EAF ratio and emission factor of electricity were estimated in different scenarios. Results show that although the crude steel demand will decrease in the future, the application ratio of advanced technologies will be increases of varying degrees. EAF will keep increasing to the maximum limitation in CM2 and CM4 scenario. Correspondingly, electricity consumption will increase 9.7% and 34.1% in these two scenarios comparing with BaU in 2050, while, coal used for coking will decrease. Higher EAF ratio and low electricity emission factor will decrease CO2 and air pollutants emission. However, more Hg, Cd and Cr will be emitted with the increasing EAF ratio.
Keywords iron and steel industry, technological assessment, AIM/Enduse, China