Volume 68

How will the residential heating electrification influence distribution networks: A data-driven planning model Wangbiao Zhou, Yue Zhou, Wei Gan 1, Zhiwei Lin

Abstract

Residential heating electrification is central to the
UK’s 2050 net-zero target but poses significant
challenges to local distribution networks. This study
develops a data-driven framework to assess the optimal
heating electrification pathways and the associated
network reinforcement. The model combes half-hourly
heat demand profiles at LSOA level with allocated
primary substation capacity to capture network
reinforcements requirements with spatial and temporal
data. Two electrification scenarios for 2035 and 2050 are
assessed under network-constrained and network
unconstrained conditions. Results of worst scenarios
indicate that achieving 2050 targets may require up to
fourfold increases in local network capacity, while heat
pump adoption can reduce this by around half. The
framework enables grid-aware assessment of local
electrification pathways and supports more informed
network planning and policy decisions.

Keywords Residential heating decarbonisation, Distribution networks, Data-driven