Volume 64

Key Learnings from an AI-based Approach for Scenario Narratives and Future Directions for Quantification – Exploring Energy Futures in the Context of Geopolitical and Societal Dynamics 2050 Franziska M. Hoffart, Julia Wolf, Kristin Dietrich, Konstantin Löffler

Abstract

The energy transition is a complex socio-technical transformation shaped not only by techno-economic factors, but also by geopolitical and social dynamics. However, these dynamics are hardly covered by quantitative energy system models. Qualitative scenario development enriched with a new AI-based narrative approach offers a promising way to communicate geopolitical dynamics, such as global power dynamics, while generating consistent storylines. Therefore, this paper aims to explore the potential of AI-based scenario narrative generation in the context of the European Energy – Geopolitics – Society nexus and outlines complementary pathways for future quantification. We employ a qualitative foresight approach based on the Cross-Impact Balance (CIB) method and a new AI-based narrative approach, which constitutes the methodological innovation of this study. As a result, we present five consistent future scenarios for Europe in 2050 and corresponding storylines, produced through a novel AI-driven storytelling approach, as well as a numerical scenario comparison. Our findings reveal practical learnings from the use of AI in scenario development, including prompting strategies, input preparation, and output evaluation. We discuss opportunities and challenges of the AI-based method and future research directions for quantifying qualitative narratives, proposing GENeSYS-MOD as a suitable global energy system model. In conclusion, new geopolitical dynamics of the energy transition can be effectively communicated – particularly through AI-generated scenario narratives – when their limitations are carefully considered and they are complemented by links to quantitative energy system models.

Keywords qualitative scenarios, energy system model, energy futures, CIB, scenario storylines, geopolitics