Volume 23: Sustainable Energy Solutions for a Post-COVID Recovery towards a Better Future: Part VI

Predicting Future Energy Demand from Electric Vehicles in Seoul Haylin Kim, Steven Jige Quan

Abstract

Along with the increasing popularity of Electric Vehicles (EV) and the expansion of the charging infrastructure, energy demand from EVs is expected to grow substantially in cities. The aging population, as one of the main concerns in South Korea, should also be taken into consideration in future EV energy demand prediction, because the elderly population, defined as those over the age of 65, are found to travel less in general but are more likely to rely on private vehicles in their trips. How will energy demand and charging loads as the driver population continues to age, the number of EVs, and charging infrastructure continue to grow? The study aims to answer this question by simulating future energy demand and charging loads in Seoul under future scenarios with different population estimation, EV penetration percentages, and charging infrastructure development schemes. The study utilizes an agent-based modeling software called BEAM (Behavior, Energy, Autonomy, and Mobility) which is an extension of MATSim, an open-source transportation simulation tool, to simulate within-day travel behavior in Seoul on a typical weekday in Spring. The two main datasets used are the 2016 national household travel survey data and road network data of Seoul from the open street map. The energy demand results from scenario-based simulation for Seoul in 2030 and 2047 concludes that total energy demand will increase with charger availability and decrease in overall charging demand as population ages.

Keywords Electric vehicle (EV), aging society, agentbased modeling (ABM), future energy demand, travel behavior