In order to stimulate clean energy consumption, the Chinese government issued a guarantee mechanism for the accommodation of renewable energy in May 2019. It stipulated the minimum accommodation responsibilities of the total amount of renewable energy power and non-hydropower in each province. However, Chinaâ€™s electricity consumption and renewable energy resources are unevenly distributed. This will cause the mismatch problem between accommodation capacity and responsibility. So, each province has different levels of pressure to fulfill its responsibilities. We establish a renewable energy accommodation assessment model, which aims to propose a reasonable renewable energy optimal dispatch strategy to make full use of resources and complete the accommodation goal. First, we use support vector regression to predict power demand, and then establish a linear programming model to simulate renewable energy dispatch. Finally, an assessment index is constructed to estimate the level of pressure for each province to fulfill the accommodation responsibilities. The results show the flow of renewable energy across China in 2022. 347.7 and 86.4 TWh of hydropower and non-hydropower will be dispatched nationwide. Among them, 11 provinces face huge completion pressure.
Keywords renewable energy, RPS policy, accommodation responsibilities, electricity demand forecast, dispatch planning