Volume 65

Retired Battery Supply and Energy Storage Demand in China: A Provincial-Scale Assessment Qi Ding, Wenying Chen

Abstract

This study develops a provincial-scale, dynamic assessment framework to quantify the spatiotemporal mismatch between retired power-battery supply and energy storage demand in China over 2030–2060. Retired battery capacity is projected to rise from 148.5 GWh in 2030 to approximately 2,843 GWh in 2060, indicating a rapidly expanding resource base. At the national scale, second-life equivalent supply remains below demand in 2030 (21.7 vs. 31.2 GWh) but exceeds demand by 2040 and thereafter (195.1 vs. 86.5 GWh), marking a transition from deficit to surplus. In 2040, supply is concentrated in eastern provinces (Guangdong 18.1 GWh; Shandong 14.3 GWh; Jiangsu 13.6 GWh), whereas demand is highest in western renewable hubs (Xinjiang 9.7 GWh; Inner Mongolia 10.6 GWh). The resulting balance (supply minus demand) exhibits large deficits in Inner Mongolia (-7.6 GWh) and Xinjiang (-6.7 GWh) alongside substantial surpluses in Guangdong (+16.1 GWh) and Henan (+14.5 GWh). Collectively, these results justify near-term cross-regional allocation and longer-term recycling capacity planning.

Keywords retired power batteries, second-life use, energy storage, spatiotemporal mismatch