Volume 14: Low Carbon Cities and Urban Energy Systems: Part III

Study on the Time-shifting Characteristics of Natural Wind with Multi Spatial and Temporal Scales Hao Zhang, Yongrui Zhang, Ran Zhai, Jie Yan, Yuan Yang, Han Wang

Abstract

The time-shifting property is an important parameter to characterize the fluctuation of natural wind at multiple temporal-spatial scales. Accurately grasping the time-shifting characteristics of natural wind can effectively reduce the impact of super-large-scale wind power grid integration on the power system. However, most of the existing methods are based on the ARMA model and time-shifting technology to generate wind speed time series with specified correlation coefficients. It is only the change of time to show that this time-shifting characteristic does exist, but there is no specific quantitative analysis on it. This paper will take the minimum Euclidean distance as the goal, and propose two evaluation indicators, time delay and speed offset, to quantitatively describe this time-shifting characteristics of natural wind associated with multiple time-space scales. First, combined with the empirical Copula function, select the optimal Copula function to describe the joint density distribution of the different wind speed time series, providing an important basis for the calculation of the correlation coefficient. Then analyze the time-shifting characteristics of natural wind based on different time scales (from 10 min to one month) to determine the optimal time analysis scale. Finally, based on the optimal time scale, the change law of the time delay and speed offset between natural wind sequences at different spatial points is studied.

Keywords time-shifting characteristics, correlation coefficient, multiple temporal-spatial scales, time delay, speed offset

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