This study is the first to assess the historical carbon mitigation and simulate the energy and emission peaks of Chinaâ€™s commercial building sector using a dynamic emission scenario. It shows that the emission mitigation of the commercial building sector during 2000â€“2016 is 1221.50 (Â± 486.89) million tons of carbon dioxide (MtCO2), and the scenario simulation demonstrates that the commercial building sector will achieve its carbon emission peak in year 2039 (Â± 8) with a peak value of 1154.88 (Â± 191.05) MtCO2. The sensitivity analysis reveals that the impacts of emission factor and GDP per capita are the most significant for the uncertainty of emission peaks. A strict energy demand benchmark of the commercial building sector suggests a control at 465.99 million tons of standard coal equivalent (Mtce), and its peaking year is estimated for 2035, which is 13 years ahead of the business-as-usual scenario, with energy savings of 112.90 Mtce. For the earliest peaking time, if the commercial building sector aims to achieve its emission peak before 2030, the emission peak should be controlled at 958.03 MtCO2. Overall, this paper can assist the government in more accurate and feasible building emission mitigation strategies. Moreover, the results provide a more powerful decision-making reference in issuing targeted and feasible strategies for future commercial building emission mitigation.
Keywords Commercial building, Emission mitigation, Energy and emission peaks, Decomposition analysis, Dynamic scenario analysis