Volume 63

Using Cross-Impact Balance Analysis to Quantify the Internal Consistency of Energy Transition Scenarios Towards Carbon Neutrality Weize Song, Qi Zhang, Xi Lu

Abstract

Scenario-based approaches are widely used to explore long-term energy transitions under deep uncertainty. Integrated assessment and energy system models provide quantitative insights but often combine technological, policy, institutional, and social assumptions without checking their consistency, which can produce numerically coherent yet internally contradictory scenarios that weaken policy relevance. Cross-Impact Balance (CIB) analysis can serve as a front-end screening tool to identify internally consistent scenario configurations before quantitative modelling. Applications in energy and sustainability studies demonstrate that CIB reduces arbitrary assumption combinations, enhances transparency, and links qualitative narratives with quantitative inputs, thereby strengthening the reliability of scenario-based energy and climate policy analysis.

Keywords Cross-Impact Balance; Energy transition, Scenario analysis, Internal consistency