The aim of the study was to utilize building data for prediction of development in energy use of a typical building type. In this study, energy use and its future development for kindergartens in Trondheim, Norway, were analyzed. The total area of all the kindergartens was about 76 000 m2 , where the area of each kindergarten was ranging from 100-4 471 m2 . The kindergartens were divided into two cohorts based on their connection to district heating (DH). Typical heat and electricity duration curves per m2 of each cohort within six years were identified. The average total annual energy use was 177 kWh/m2 for kindergartens without DH, and 168 kWh/m2 for the ones connected to DH. The peak load values were similar for both cohorts, about 140 W/m2 . Analysis of the duration curves showed a bigger electricity load variation for the kindergartens without DH. Among the building cohort with DH, three cases were found depending on the energy share from DH; i.e. DH high share, DH average share, and DH low share. By following different background data for CO2 factors of electricity and local DH, the kindergarten with DH high share has almost the lowest annual CO2 emission. Finally, a prediction was made by assuming 14.2 % growth rate of kindergartens on the ground of the average 6-year total kindergarten area. The result showed that if more than 50-67 % of the new building area would be connected to DH, a smaller increase of CO2 emission from the predicted area could be achieved. This proved that buildings with DH were more robust than the ones without DH concerning CO2 emission. The suggested analysis method and identified duration curves could be used to as a reference example.
Keywords kindergarten, district heating, electricity, building area, CO2