Volume 20: Sustainable Energy Solutions for a Post-COVID Recovery towards a Better Future: Part III

Establishment and application of a novel heating load model for building complex ：a load based on hybrid mechanistic and data driven approach Cui Mianshan , Yang Junhong ,Cui Xuyang , Ma Ruijie ,Wang Zeyu

Abstract

Accurate prediction of the heat-side load of a central heating system is of great importance to meet the thermal comfort of users, while saving energy and reducing emissions. Most of the current research reports on load models rarely consider the difference and time-varying of actual user demand room temperature. In this paper, user room temperature is introduced into the heat load model, and a hybrid mechanistic and data-driven approach is used to construct a heat load model for a building complex, including base load, cumulative temperature effects and determination of model parameters, which is applied to two practical engineering cases. The results show that: the relative deviations of the simulated values compared with the actual are all no more than 3% for annual cumulative loads, and no more than 25%, 20%, and 18% for daily, three-days, and weekly loads, respectively. The heat load model in this paper can reflect the demand loads of a building complex at different target room temperatures. By setting the
target room temperature values with reference to the design specifications, it is found that both cases have great energy-saving potential, with the annual cumulative load being reduced by 32.2% for case 1 and 62.7% for case 2

Keywords building complex,load forecasting model,target room temperature,time-zoning,energy-saving potential